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Editorial verdict
Credible intergovernmental report. The comparative framework across G20 economies is methodologically transparent and well-sourced, though the policy principles reflect aspirational consensus rather than empirically tested outcomes — treat the country examples as illustrative, not prescriptive.
Executive summary
This report, jointly prepared by the ILO and OECD for the G20 Employment Working Group in June 2018, addresses the persistent challenge of skills mismatch and shortages across G20 economies and examines how countries anticipate and respond to evolving skill needs. The authors argue that while most G20 countries have some form of skills assessment and anticipation system, significant gaps remain in translating collected information into effective policy action. Key evidence is drawn from a joint ILO-OECD-Cedefop-ETF stakeholder survey of 13 G20 countries, which documents the prevalence of employer surveys, sectoral analyses, and quantitative forecasting models, as well as barriers such as insufficient stakeholder coordination, poor dissemination, and inadequate disaggregation of results. Country-level examples from Canada, Germany, France, Australia, the United States, Brazil, Russia, Italy, and Korea illustrate varied institutional approaches. The report concludes by proposing a set of actionable principles for effective skills anticipation systems, emphasising clear objectives, stakeholder engagement, inter-ministerial coordination, robust labour market information infrastructure, and alignment of outputs to policy needs.
Key insights
- 1Skill mismatch imposes costs at individual, firm, and macroeconomic levels — including reduced wages, lower productivity, higher structural unemployment, and constrained technology adoption — making anticipation systems economically significant.
- 2The most commonly used skills anticipation methods across G20 countries are employer surveys (85%), sector studies (77%), and surveys of workers or graduates (77%), with quantitative forecasting models used by just over half of surveyed countries.
- 3The principal barriers to translating skills needs assessments into policy action are insufficient disaggregation of results, lack of stakeholder consultation during exercises, and inadequate consideration of labour supply and demand dynamics — not methodological quality alone.
Practical takeaways
- Combining quantitative forecasting with qualitative foresight and stakeholder engagement — as practiced in Korea, Brazil's SENAI model, and Germany — compensates for the individual limitations of each method and produces more policy-relevant outputs.
- Big data and real-time online vacancy analysis offer promising supplementary tools for timely skills intelligence, but carry significant biases in sectoral, occupational, and geographic coverage that limit their standalone reliability.
Frameworks mentioned
Delphi Method
A structured qualitative forecasting approach using iterative expert opinion surveys to reach consensus on future skills needs.
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models
Quantitative economic modelling approach used to analyse underlying reasons for changes in skills demand across sectors.
Input-Output (IO) Tables
Simplified quantitative modelling approach used particularly in developing countries to assess how demand-side shocks influence employment and skills demand.
Hermin Model
A simplified structural macroeconomic model developed by Bradley (2000) designed for emerging economies with limited statistical data, covering four main sectors and both supply and demand sides.
E3M3 Model
Cedefop's multi-sectoral macroeconomic model used to produce pan-European employment projections by sector, occupational cluster, and country.
References
- ILO, Cedefop, ETF, OECD (2017).Skills needs anticipation: Systems and approaches. Analysis of stakeholder survey on skill needs assessment and anticipation.
- OECD Publishing (2016).Getting Skills Right: Assessing and Anticipating Changing Skill Needs.
- OECD Publishing (2017).Getting Skills Right: Skills for Jobs Indicators.
- OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1210 (2015).Skill Mismatch and Public Policy in OECD Countries.
- OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 167 (2015).The Causes and Consequences of Field-of-study Mismatch: An Analysis Using PIAAC.
- ETF, Cedefop, ILO (2016).Developing skills foresights, scenarios and forecasts — Guide to Anticipating and Matching Skills and Jobs, Volume 2.
- ETF, Cedefop, ILO (2015).Guide to anticipating and matching skills and jobs (6 volumes).
- ILO (2012).Skills for trade and economic diversification: A practical guide.
- ILO (2017).Trade Union Involvement in Skills Development: an International Review.
- ILO (2015).Anticipating and matching skills and jobs. Guidance Note.
- ILO (2011).A Skilled Workforce for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth: A G20 Training Strategy.
- ILO-WTO (2017).Investing in skills for inclusive trade.
- ILO and Skolkovo Moscow School of Management (2016).Skills technology foresight guide.
- UNESCO and ILO (2018).Taking a Whole Government Approach to Skills Development: Strengthening the Role of Inter-Ministerial Coordination.
- NBER Working Paper No. 23328 (2017).Firm heterogeneity in skill demands.
- IZA Journal of Labor Economics (2015).Using online job vacancies and web surveys to analyse the labour market: a methodological inquiry.
- Cedefop (2008).Future Skill Needs in Europe, Medium-Term Forecast: Synthesis Report.
- OECD Publishing (2014).OECD Employment Outlook 2014.
- Centre for the Study of Living Standards (2015).Review of Best Practices in Labour Market Forecasting with an Application to the Canadian Aboriginal Population.
- Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 31 (1993).Assignment Models of the Distribution of Earnings.
- Australian Bulletin of Labour, Vol. 31, No. 1 (2005).Skills Shortages: Concepts, Measurement and Policy Responses.
Source & Provenance
ilo
Not specified
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Industry Report
Global
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